Welcome to my blog. I am a former local journalist who now works in PR and a Conservative and community activist in Woking and Horsell. This blog will keep updated on local issues as well as my interests and quirky news stories.
Nick Clegg delivered a speech today that by most accounts rounded off a pretty disastrous Lib Dem conference in a moderately efficient way without setting any real fires in the hearts of activists.
Nick Clegg, would-be PM
But yet again, he seemed intent on playing to his weaknesses. Instead of displaying the resonant pragmatism that a party with little chance of government can afford to have, Clegg seemed intent on talking about what would happen if he became Prime Minister. It only served to highlight the fact that he isn’t going to be Prime Minister.
A hung Parliament is still an outside possibility next May. The LDs’ best strategy is to win as many seats as they can (at least offsetting any Tory losses with Labour gains) and look to hold the balance of power after the election. By refusing to countenance sharing power or state his price as a coalition partner, Clegg has lost touch of reality at the end of a conference where members really needed him to grab hold of it again.
The Lib Dems are about 150-1 to win the next election. There is a possibility that they could go from 20% to 45% in the polls in seven months. There is also a possibility that I could end up campaigning for Rosie Sharpley in Woking next May. But it’s a pretty slim one (she wouldn’t let me, anyway) and if I started talking about it at length, people might assume that I’d let go of the handlebars and fallen off the bike. Similarly with Nick Clegg when he talks about being PM.
What the Lib Dems have is a unique credibility among voters. Because no-one really pays them much attention, no-one really understands what they stand for but they seem nice enough on telly so they get the benefit of the doubt. I’ve known right-wing Conservatives and left-wing Labourites vote Lib Dem as a protest – clearly they didn’t have a clue what they were voting for. But that credibility has been damaged this week – not least because the star player Vince Cable has received criticism in the media first the first time ever.
Nick Clegg needs to rebuild that credibility over the autumn – claiming he can be the next PM and that his party are “real contenders” to win the next general election isn’t the best of starts.
Update 24/9: I think I probably wrote this post a day too earlier because the thoughts in it hadn’t really solidified in my mind. I considered re-writing, but Denzil Coulson has written a comment below that I think is a very fair “other side of the coin” argument.
The problem the Lib Dems have is actually a credibility gap. As the third party, they have a high degree of credibility among both Labour and Tory voters – hence why either will vote for them as a protest and why at local government level they control large metropolitan councils and shire districts that by any measurement ought to be Conservative.
But as a party of government, they have no credibility at all. And when Nick Clegg tries to move them in that direction, it all seems a bit ridiculous and that in turn affects their credibility as the third party. Denzil is quite right and Clegg is quite right to not be happy as the third party and to push for opposition and government. But the issue is how to close that credibility gap without damaging their current position and weakening, rather than strengthening themselves.
Hence Clegg urging voters who support the Lib Dems to vote for them even if they don’t believe government is realistic – the more the polls show the Lib Dems at 20% the fewer supporters will leap across the gap; the fewer supporters leaping across the gap, the more that figure stagnates at 20%.
Lib Dems should be assured that I will give an equally critical analysis of Gordon Brown and Labour starting tomorrow – and yes, to DC and my party too. I want to vote for DC next year but in doing so I want to know that it is the right, not just the tribal, thing to do.
The electoral system and the media perpetuate this belief that only the Tories and Labour are entitled to hold power. Both parties are insulated by the current Westminster electoral system that guarantees many politicians jobs-for-life. Research has shown that the safer your seat, the higher the expenses scandal was for an MP in a safe seat.
Yes the possibilities are slim of an outright Lib Dem electoral win. But we must state our bold ambitions for a changing political environment where voting reform must be on the cards to reconnect with a disillusioned public. I only hope David Cameron accepts voting reform as a necessity should a hung parliament emerge. That should be our price of joining a coalition government.
Yes – conference debate can be messy when our party debates openly with all its members, unlike the Tories or Labour who prefer to debate most controversial policies behind closed doors. It is time to be open and honest with the public about the state of the government defecit and the painful choices we need to make about cuts. That is what we did in Bournemouth.