Welcome to my blog. I am a former local journalist who now works in PR and a Conservative and community activist in Woking and Horsell. This blog will keep updated on local issues as well as my interests and quirky news stories.
Both the Ipsos/MORI and ICM pollsters have the Conservative lead back to a pretty decisive 17 points, which is fairly well exactly where we were before the conferences began. The good news for DC is that the Conservative figures of 43% and 44% are where he needs to be for a serious majority – 45% would be ideal. The bad news for him is that the big set-piece Conservative conference, which always follows last, hasn’t permanently impacted in a positive way.
On the other hand, you can say that maintaining a 17-point lead is hard enough, let alone extending it. In response to Denzil Coulson’s questions, I did some research (albeit brief) into how the polls might act in May 2010 based on previous elections and the polls seven months before the polling day.
It showed that the Labour votes usually goes down, the Liberal Democrat vote normally goes up and the Conservative vote stays about the same. If you did that to the current figures, you’d get Con 44%, Lab 24% and Lib 22%. Type that into Electoral Calculus and you get a Conservative majority of 154. From hung Parliament to Tory landslide – now there’s a though to warm a chilly October night.
Of course it depends on where those votes are cast – as usual around 50,000 votes in key marginals will decide the actual result. But that’s the fun!
