The Horsell's Mouth Politics, pedantry and personal interests

St George and the dragon could be friends...

As I’m going to marry a Welsh girl next summer, I’ve got a vested interest in the Principality so it’s interesting to me to consider how Wales and England will relate to each other during the next two Parliaments.

To my mind, in both Scotland and Northern Ireland, the principle argument of the United Kingdom’s integrity has been lost – Ulster will return to Ireland and Scotland will become an independent state; it is just a question of when, and how.

In Wales though – and despite the equally bloody history of Anglo-Welsh relations – there is a far milder desire for that kind of thing and despite Plaid Cymru’s successes as a protest vote, people in Wales generally want to think about how to secure better government within the UK.

Today, we have a Welsh opinion poll that is promising news for DC, following a good showing the European elections, where the Conservatives always do well. How he and his government approach the question of engaging with the Welsh people will be an important question if he becomes the next PM. There are Welsh links in the party – from Ffion Hague to Cheryl Gillian, widely regarded as a rising star - and there is a real opportunity to cement some of the Union’s crumbling brickwork.

Labour’s policy in Wales has been the same for 100 years. They tap into the hopelessness and victimhood of post-industrial decline and keep people where they are using the Welfare State. In large tracts of Wales, this has worked well for them and some of the safest Labour seats are in south Welsh ex-mining constituencies.

Parts of Wales can be every bit as rough and tough as the grittiest areas of England. But a renovated Cardiff and new impetus from devolution has reinforced the natural optimism of the Welsh people, particularly in the south, which is why I think more of them are prepared to give DC a chance.

The Welsh aren’t natural Tory voters outside the border regions. If they can’t vote Labour, they’ll go to PC – hell, they’ll even vote for Lembit Opik ahead of the Conservative. So this poll reveals a decisive, if fragile, shift. It’s an opportunity for the Conservatives to leave a legacy of good in parts of the UK that we haven’t previously reached.

So many other things need fixing and the Conservatives need to keep electoral support in England high to stay in office. But this is one Welsh opportunity that I sincerely hope we will seize upon. We need to show to a part of the UK previously neglected by us that we are serious about the future of every single person on our green and pleasant island.

Update 29/10: A breakdown of the figures shows more starkly the pick-up in Conservative support in Wales. Congratulations to the Tory Welsh team, which seems to be getting its message across. Now let’s not waste that progress through non-delivery.