The Horsell's Mouth Politics, pedantry and personal interests

Labour's Willie Bain, the new MP for Glasgow NE

In case you missed it, there was a Scottish by-election yesterday that Labour won. Rather interesting actually – having tasted the Scottish National Party in government at Holyrood, the voters of Glasgow North East seem to approve of that party even less than Labour. But let’s be honest here – the seven, yes seven, seats in Glasgow are staunch and natural Labour heartland and frankly it’s a disaster that they don’t hold all seven (the SNP won Glasgow East back in July last year).

The idea that an unpopular party of government in Scotland (the SNP) being beaten soundly by a slightly less unpopular Labour government in Westminster (Labour) is somehow a resounding endorsement of Gordon Brown is total rubbish. And the fact the Conservatives even managed 1,075 votes in Glasgow North East is completely hilarious – I can’t imagine how there are that many Conservatives in north east Glasgow but it’s heartening to learn that there are.

If Labour hadn’t won this by-election, Gordon Brown’s job would have been under serious threat. That they have – and that they have held onto other safe seats such as Sedgefield and Glenrothes – means he can sleep a bit easier at least until after Christmas. I don’t expect that his leadership will be challenged before the next election now for the simple reason that anyone taking over would have a very difficult job turning everything around.

In a sense, this is actually a good result for the Conservatives. If the SNP had won, a leadership challenge in the next two months – followed by a snap election in March with a long campaign – would have been a possibility. I don’t think that this will happen now as Gordon Brown’s “endorsement” in Glasgow NE will cement him where he is. But this is no more an endorsement of him than holding onto Surrey Heath or Sussex Mid would be to DC. It tells us nothing except that core supporters are still prepared to vote for him; but we know that already as 25% of people still say that they vote Labour.

I anticipate that this could rise during the next few months to around 30% as the signs for economic recovery improve. It is up to DC now to show that a) the underlying financial situation in the this country, despite moving back into overall growth, is still dire and that b) the Conservatives are the party who will manage this underlying recovery best.

If they can continue to move in this direction in a convincing way, Gordon’s reprieve in number 10 will be shortlived and the Glasgow NE will seem very scant consolation.