The Horsell's Mouth Politics, pedantry and personal interests

A little while ago, the PM liked to remind us how the recession started in America and wasn’t really the fault of anyone in the UK (even the bankers). He also assured us that the UK was best placed to deal with the recession and that we would come out of it strongly, ahead of other less well-prepared economies.

Yesterday’s announcement that the UK is still in recession while the Americans are now growing at 2.2% won’t damage Labour politically any further because their economic incompetence is already reflected in their current poll rating. But it will make it more difficult to hold an early election in March because the Conservatives will be able to argue on these figures and no further ones are due before a March campaign would be well underway.

There again, if the PM wants to wait until May – and his indecisiveness makes this the most likely option – he will have to deliver a gloom-filled budget that will overshadow any official news of recession exit and a small overall growth in the economy. The real damage of this recession was never going to be fully apparent during its duration but rather in the years that will follow.

In all fairness, I don’t think the PM and this Labour government have earned the right to manage the recovery and believe that voters will see it that way during an election too. It remains for DC and George Osborne to convince that they have the approach to see the country onto a even footing and the imagination to maintain growth in the face of the crippling debts that Labour have left to us.

The debt is the price of the PM trying to force an early recovery – increasing spending and refusing to exercise restraint. In addition, all the money that has been printed is a serious inflation risk in 2010/11 and the public and private sector have to show moderation and pay restraint during the first years of recovery. Working for a company that provides support services largely to government clients, I include myself in that too.

The dishonesty of the PM in misrepresenting the UK’s strength to fight the recession has been one if its most unedifying features.