All hung together

I'd rather have the Royal Mail deliver for me than this lot

I was stopped on the street the other day by someone who wanted to talk about the economy. “Do you know where the problem started?” he said. I started on about how the banks had mixed their High Street and investment banking functions for the sake of profit. “I know all that,” he said. “You’re wrong, let me tell you when it started.”

The Bank of England used to get payments from the banks and could control money flowing in and out of them. If a bank wasn’t performing or was lending too much, the Bank of England could control the amount that it let flow to them or demand that they pay more money into them. Then Gordon Brown decided he didn’t want that to happen any more. He created this thing called the Financial Services Authority, which didn’t have any of those powers. And with their new-found freedom, the banks went off and did all the things that they had wanted to do but were stopped by the Bank of England.”

I listened – finally getting in with “so you support then the Conservative proposal to hand back regulation of the banks to the Bank of England?”

Yes, but it’s not as simple as that. I’ve voted Labour in the past but I’m going to support you not because of the Bank of England but because the worst possible outcome for this country right now is a hung Parliament. I think you are the only party who can win outright and it’s important that we have a majority government for the sake of the economy. A hung parlimanent would be a disaster – the uncertainty could cost us our AAA credit rating, we wouldn’t be able to sell our guilts and bonds and repay the deficit. If that happens, we’ll be like Greece.

It’s exchanges like this that make you think how important it is that we win this election. The Liberal Democrats want you to think that a hung parliament is a positive choice and will bring change. What it’ll actually bring is no change because the Civil Service will continue along the same course it’s been taking the country for years and the Lib Dems will run with it in order to stay in government. If anyone doubts this, look at what happened when the Lib Dems were in power in Scotland - not much.

If the Lib Dems go into coaltion, it will only be with Labour and Gordon Brown would remain as PM. Make no mistake, politics is a power game and all three parties are motivated by exactly the same desire for power and the enactment of their agenda, despite the ‘fresh approach’, the optimistic promises, the ‘plague on both your houses’ populism. Britain is in too fragile a place economically and socially to risk it on the Liberal Democrats.

Not even tea time…

It's been a busy day...

It's been a busy day...

…And already we’ve got the Bank of England demonstrating the state the economy is in by having to create another £25bn of wealth kick-start our growth once more.

Gordon Brown is obviously pretty determined that the UK needs to come back into overall growth as soon as possible to prevent more dire headlines and preserve the faint possibility of hanging onto his job. The threat of inflation should this process not be handled correctly is, in any case, a post-election problem. If the Treasury pushes us into inflation, it’ll be DC’s fault or if Labour somehow scrapes back into power via a hung Parliament, Gordon has got five years to sort it.

This isn’t leadership, it’s sabotage.

Elsewhere, those squeaky-clean alternatives to the Conservatives, UKIPpers, who have spent the day condemning the new Conservative policy on Europe, have had to face up to the reality that one of their former MEPs was siphoning off £2,500 each month from taxpayers in Europe.

Tom Wise claimed £3,000 a month to pay for his secretary and then gave her just £500, spending the rest of it on whatever he felt like. So this idea that UKIP is the perfect antidote to MPs’ expenses and will also provide a EU “in or out” referendum is total nonsense.

A vote for UKIP is a vote for the Liberal Democrats in Woking and Gordon Brown nationally. I will never understand the political reasoning of those that vote for them – why would you cast a vote out of dogma that will end up having the opposite effect to the one you want?

Finally, the French are so incredibly annoyed about the new Conservative Euro-policy that one of their ministers has had a moment of temporary madness. That’s what I call a positive outcome.

Economical with the truth

It’s a mixed day for the economic forecasts at the moment. Gordon Brown, for obvious reasons, is keen to claim credit for a few signs that the recession misery is easing. More likely, the dire straits of the first few months of 2009 are calming and the economy is being stimulated by production starting up again and the billions of extra pounds that the Bank of England has been forced to print.

Elsewhere, economists aren’t as optimistic as Gordon. Ann Pettifor thinks the worst is yet to come and the FT reports that even after a recovery is in full swing, there will be parts of the economy that have been permanently damaged and that will not return to pre-recession levels.

On a political level, Gordon’s front-page splash in the FT (complete with exclusive picture of Blairite hand gestures) is designed to keep City relations on an admittedly delicate even keel by trying to convince bankers that controlling their bonuses is vital to re-establishing the City’s reputation abroad.

He also knows that the FT is the newspaper that journalists read and that a front page there will get picked up everywhere else (notably the BBC, although they are obviously annoyed the story was fed to the FT as they only run it in the business news) for more populist purposes.

The point is this – that Gordon and his gang are going to try and claim that far from wrecking the UK’s once vibrant financial services and manufacturing economy with ruinous debts, strangling regulation and non-existent oversight, the government has actually saved it from destruction and navigated the financial storm. Really?

DC writes today in the Times about the Lockerbie decision and that’s fair enough because clearly some pretty underhand stuff has gone on there. But he needs to be ready to maintain pressure on Gordon over his economy-wrecking and head off Labour attempts to create a competence myth around the embryonic recovery.

Labour governments always end up out of office with the country bankrupt and 2010 will be no exception. DC needs to bring his communications skills to bear on this fact if Labour are not to slip out of the electoral noose.