You don’t con, Vince

April 1, 2010 — simonashall

It's Yoda from Star Wars - no, not really, it's Vince Cable

Just a few words about Vince Cable. I watched the Chancellor’s debate the other evening and I’m not going to claim that George Osborne wiped the floor because he didn’t.

But given that he was being ganged up on by both Alistair Darling and Vince Cable, I think he came across well enough for me not to be persuaded of the case for him being replaced by Ken Clarke. The party is lucky in Phillip Hammond and Clarke to have two minds with plenty of economic experience to back George Osborne up and Osborne himself is made of far sterner stuff than I believe is immediately apparent.

Darling, on the other hand was an utter bore. His budget speech was more interesting and yes, although he did land a hit on the Conservatives over the NI part-reduction, subsequent events may  be more significant in this regard. He wasn’t nearly commanding enough for the man holding all the aces.

Vince Cable won the debate and that’s easy enough to understand. He was able to stand in the middle and come across as the voice of reason, hopping (albeir deftly) onto the “plague on both your houses” feeling that currently pervades. But did anyone notice a policy in there? At least Darling and Osborne were discussing whether or not an extra 0.5% on NI was a good thing to do – Vince was only bashing the other two. The debate may be politics; but politics isn’t necessarily the debate.

Frankly, anyone could have done what Vince did. And I think underneath it Vince doesn’t have any more in the way of policy than anyone else. Which is less forgiveable because the Lib Dems aren’t constrained by having to say things that will ever come to pass.

Standing in the middle with nothing to lose isn’t difficult (and will no doubt be repeated by Nick Clegg in the leader debates). But sooner or later, the waiverers that the Lib Dems are hoping to attract will catch on.

Posted in Economy, elections, politics. Tags: , , , , , , . No Comments »

Referendum fever

November 3, 2009 — admin

Back in 2007, a Conservative leadership that badly needed to get back the support of The Sun newspaper made a “cast-iron” guarantee about holding a referendum on whatever treaty resulted from the negotiations at Lisbon.

Once the Czech president Vaclav Klaus signs his country’s ratification of the treaty (as looks imminent), it will become law across Europe and binding on all states. The only way out is to leave and the only way to “repatriate powers“  is to negotiate agreement from all 27 members countries, which will mean so much compromise as to be essentially impossible. In effect, the only way to renegotiate is to leave and try to rejoin.

I still believe that holding a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty itself is pointless. It would be an expensive way of guaging public opinion – I can predict with 90% certainly that around 65-70% would vote against the treaty and 30-35% for it. So what? There’s nothing you can do with that info except to figure that Britain is a broadly Euro-sceptic country, which we already know.

So DC’s promise has been overtaken by events and he knows it. His problem now is to reconcile his party between those who want a referendum and/or exit from Europe – and how to stop them voting for UKIPpers – and those who still see a future in a Europe of trading partners. It is unlikely that other European nations – particularly France, Germany and a Spain riddled with resentment over Gibraltar – will allow the UK to enjoy the benefits of economic community without the constraints of the social and political union.

So where does DC go? He promised a referendum but the one he promised is a dead duck. He has stated he “won’t let matters rest” but that could mean anything. The repatriation of powers is not going to find favour in Europe itself but he doesn’t want to advocate leaving the EU for fear of upsetting the One Nation Set, including Ken Clarke who is broadly seen by voters as moderate and electable.

Personally, I have always favoured a trading relationship with Europe without the political tie-ins. If this becomes impossible, I think preserving our political freedom is more important than trade and we should withdraw from the EU and manage our trade relationships accordingly. It’s not a one-way street; Europe also needs the UK – otherwise we become a very potent competitor.

My suggestion to DC was to let Europe take a back seat but he seems adamant on pushing it. Therefore I think we should have a referendum with four questions – yes or no to:

1) The Lisbon Treaty

2) Membership of the Euro

3) Inclusion in the Social Chapter

4) Membership of the EU itself

The referendum would cost the same amount of money – but will provide a government with information on the sort of Europe that its people want and allow it to go forward with negotiation on that basis.

Posted in David Cameron, Europe. Tags: , , , , , , . No Comments »
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