Lurch to the right

January 25, 2010 — admin

DC has plenty to think about - but voters still don't want Gordon Brown as PM

There’s no mystery as to why the Conservative lead in the polls has narrowed. In fact, reading PR Week this morning, it was quite refreshing to see Alex Hilton spelling it out for any reading Conservatives who may not have realised yet. And if we look at the polls, we don’t really see any massive increase in Labour’s polling – they are steady at just under 30% – but a decline in support for the Conservatives.

The tipping point was the Lisbon Treaty being ratified by President Klaus of the Czech Republic. For the first time, DC and his team looked like they’d been caught out – like they had thought that the wily old Klaus would hold out for them and they didn’t look as though they had really thought through what would happen next. Or perhaps they underestimated the level of opinion within the Tory grass roots and had expected them just to swallow the whole debate being kicked into the long grass.

In reality, there wasn’t much alternative, as I argued at the time. A referendum on the treaty is a totally pointless waste of time and the activists’ posturing on it just that. But the question of whether to put Tory grass roots ahead of country as a whole was a particularly poignant one for him because voters see that question as the benchmark as to what kind of PM he will be. In the end, he chose neither and pleased neither.

Since then, we’ve had some cracking grass roots-pleasing policies. Punishing people for not being married is one. For goodness’ sake, we’ve had 13 long years of a government telling us how to live – from the beef we can eat to detention without trial, people want a Conservative government that will leave them alone, not tell them they’ve got to march to the Register Office or else. Marriage doesn’t automatically equal childhood bliss as we’ve seen in Edlington; please DC, just let it go.

Next we’ve had the Tories arguing about strengthening the law to allow people to defend their homes. The simply fact is that we have to have some kind of trust in the rule of law and the police to distinguish us from the animals. You are already entitled to use reasonable force – which may include deadly force – to defend yourself and your loved ones in your own home; there is no for any further “clarification” of this fact. By banging on about it, Chris Grayling and everyone risk succinct exposure by the legal profession.

Then DC had a pop at teachers and told them that they would need to be cleverer in future. I happen to agree with his view on this but saying such a thing was never likely to endear him to the NUT, BBC, or the many parents who are potential Tory voters that have a healthy respect for the teachers at their childrens’ school. There is an issue with teaching standards in this country but he’d have been better leaving it to Michael Gove to say so.

He’s also playing a risky game engaging the government over the raising of the UK Terror Threat to “severe”. The public do not like to see politicians making political capital of national security. Yes, DC means well but he needs to engage his PR brain a bit more to see how these things may be perceived. Is Andy Coulson on holiday?

DC’s greatest political achievement has been to drag a tired old party kicking and screaming into the 21st century. I and many others waited 10 years for someone to do it and it remains a great achievement – but it’s only a starting point. And with Lisbon, he has been a victim of circumstances trying to do the right thing – but hey, that’s politics. Now is the time for DC to be fitfully stubborn and stand his ground – the centre ground.

He must, must not allow the party to do what many of its activists want and move back to the right. He needs to focus back onto the left of politics – to talk the language of inclusion, of accessibility and of aspiration. He must ignore the threats of UKIPper defections – he needs to stay focussed on the mainstream of society, the probables, the Liberal waiverers, the people who are looking for him to uphold their vision of a small-c conservative society that celebrates success and achievement but makes this possible for everyone. I’ll fight and fight for the party forever – but I’ll feel a lot better about it if I hear more of this and less Monday Club rhetoric.

Labour won’t make it easy – they are focussing on Gordon Brown the statesman with the War on Terror, the Northern Ireland process, they are talking about banking bonuses again and tax will be an issue too. There are probably brighter economic figures to come. DC needs to stay strong, to regain confidence in his ability to be the Prime Minister of everyone, not just his own party.

The time for him to become PM is approaching fast and his margin of error is narrowing. It’s now or never and he needs to get a grip once more.

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On the March

December 6, 2009 — admin
Could Gordon be gone by April?

Could Gordon be gone by April?

There appear to be loudening whispers around Westminster at the moment that a March election could be on the cards. March 25 seems the most likely date for it if the PM wants to go early as it gives more time.

Evidence to suggest that this is at least an option being considered is increasingly stacking up. Firstly, there were the Labour Party staffing advertisements, which have been appearing in greater numbers recently. Secondly, it would offer the PM something of an advantage of surprise. It could also allow him to fight on the basis of Christmas-boosted economic figures and allow him to postpone the pre-Budget report until after an election.

It has certainly caught the minds of journalists at very high-placed political news outlets such as the Spectator, New Statesman and Daily Telegraph. Things don’t just pop into so many journalists’ minds at the same time on the same subject by chance – someone is briefing them. It could be Alistair Campbell, brought back to feed the PM with some snide one-liners about class war. Alternatively, it could be coming from the Conservative side, talking up a March election to get activists focussed and make Brown look scared if he waits until May.

It could be both but it’s certainly an interesting Phoney War. My own feeling is that the election will be on May 6 because Labour simply doesn’t have the money to run two separate campaigns. But then the PM could go on March 25, spend everything on the general election and leave the local elections to dangle – it’s not like Labour’s local government presence could get much worse anyway.

Polls at the moment seem to be narrowing slightly to Labour’s advantage – or more accurately, since the Labour vote is static – to the Conservatives’ disadvantage. A lot of that I think is the fall out from the Lisbon Treaty and Eurosceptics switching to UKIP. Hopefully, by the election time they will understand that a vote for Lord Pearson and his merry crew is a total waste of time and actually helps the PM stay on for another five years. I am confident that many of these UKIP waverers will stay within the Conservative Party but there is a huge amount of work ahead.

The most important thing is not the opinion poll figures but getting your supporters out to vote for you. If Labour thinks they have more chance of doing this in March, so be it.

Posted in Polling, Roll on 2010, elections. Tags: , , , , , , , . No Comments »

UKIP’s major point

November 28, 2009 — admin

An interesting story in The Times today about the relationship between UKIP and the Conservative Party, which threatens to become even more bitter than that between the Tories and the parties of the left.

The story says that UKIP offered to not fight the general election if the Conservatives gave a written guarantee (as opposed to a cast-iron one) that a referendum would definitely be held after the election and that its MPs would be given a free vote in a Commons ratification. He got no answer, although both the BBC and The Times say that Lord Strathclyde acknowlegdes the meeting have taken place.

In case anyone didn’t know, UKIP elected a new leader last week, Lord Pearson of Rannoch, to take over from Nigel Farage. This is obviously his attempt to make some headlines and announce his presence on the scene and that’s all fine. I’m glad that six months ago, the Conservatives had the foresight to see that Lisbon might be ratified ahead of an election and that this delicate siutation required careful planning, not more rash promises. In addition, a pact with UKIP endorses an openly Eurosceptic view, which may have caused further conflict within the party. We were right to reject their silly politicking.

What is interesting to me is the idea that, this one policy demand satisfied, UKIP was prepared to stand down from elections. In addition, Lord Pearson continued:

“And then when we had the referendum – which we believed we would win – we would then be out of the European Union and then at that point UKIP, well it would have been up to UKIP, but it would probably have disbanded because its major point would no longer be in existence.”

I thought this was a major party with policies on a range of issues. It appears, in fact to be a single-issue pressure group that stands for election and paradoxically ends up taking votes from the one mainstream political party that can deliver its single issue objective. It’s an incredibly short-sighted organisation.

If, as I hope it will, Britain ends its membership of the European Union within the next 10 years, there is a great deal that will have to be planned for to ensure that we remain competitive and politically engaged inside and outside the EU. For 35 years, our politics has operated on various fringes of Europe and to place ourselves outside that will require plenty of adjustments. Adjustments for the better, perhaps, but adjustments nevertheless.

But as soon as the exit from the EU is achieved, that appears to be UKIP’s tipping point to disband according to its new leader. Never mind the implications of the exit, never mind the work that follows it – we’ve got we wanted and now we’re off. This group doesn’t know the first thing about running a country – it’s only interested in tunnel vision politics and single issues. Successful politics understands that issues tend to happen simultaneously and everything, as Lenin once said, is connected to everything else.

So if you aren’t that keen on Europe and are thinking about voting for them in Woking or anywhere for that matter, try asking this of your UKIP candidate when they come knocking – what happens during life after the EU? Then ask yourself whether you really want people bought into a party with no concept of strategy to be your MP or local councillor.

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Life after Lisbon

November 4, 2009 — admin

DavidCameronEuroWell, that’s it. The Czechs have signed and the Lisbon Treaty becomes law soon. DC has outlined his response, no doubt hoping to kick this into the long grass until after the election.

Unfortunately, I don’t think that will convince some of the more strident Eurosceptics, who will continue to call for a referendum on something, anything, to do with Europe. The thing about referenda is that there is a time, a place and more importantly a question, for them. We can have several referenda a week if we like but unless they are timely and relevant, they are a pointless waste.

Principled these people may be, but they are also myopic. They can’t see that a Conservative Party arguing over Europe is exactly the alternative to Gordon Brown that the public doesn’t want. They can’t see that having this argument amongst themselves now assumes we are going to win the next election – which is still a bold assumption. They can’t see that yes, the question of our relationship with Europe is the political question for the next 10 years; but it isn’t by any means the most important question on the ground in British politics at the moment.

Conservative MPs and PPCs should ask themselves how we are going to manage and reduce the overwhelming debt that Labour has built up and how our shattered economy is not only going to be re-built but re-modelled for a new economic era.

They should ask themselves how to address education, training and social mobility – let’s not pretend these are three separate things – and how to stop young people in many parts of the country growing up without opportunity or hope.

They should consider how they will deal with the question of our Armed Forces and the tough choices that are needed to define what we want from our military in the future.

They should look at our police force and emergency services – including the NHS – and try to understand how we can restore public trust in the police, reduce crime and establish proper administration and a sustainable future for the NHS.

They should think about our constitution and our relationships with our immediate neighbours and how we can work together to bring about prosperity and transparent government. Local government is another area where the Conservative Party desperately needs to inject vigour, a sense of purpose and efficiency.

Yes, some of these areas are affected by EU policy. But they are big questions that impact on people in Britain today, now. The European question won’t ride off into the sunset. The Lisbon Treaty makes exiting the EU easy if Britain should ever wish to do this. If it instead wants to attempt renegotiation, then it will be free to try that too – although I cannot see how it would be achieved.

The point is that this is not a fight that we need to have now, it is not a fight that will win any elections and it is not a fight that the British people, many of whom have suffered job losses and reduced household incomes on top of spiralling food and energy costs, want to have now either.

Eurosceptics, including myself, need to let it drop. Otherwise they will lose the public confidence and hand victory from the jaws of catastrophe to Gordon to have another five years. And we certainly won’t be attempting renegotiation under him.

Update 5/11: There is a convincing and slightly expanded version of the same argument I make at Ben Archibald’s blog. I think this sets out in detail the context in which we should all see the European drama.

Posted in Conservatives, David Cameron, Europe, Other blogs. Tags: , , , , . No Comments »

Referendum fever

November 3, 2009 — admin

Back in 2007, a Conservative leadership that badly needed to get back the support of The Sun newspaper made a “cast-iron” guarantee about holding a referendum on whatever treaty resulted from the negotiations at Lisbon.

Once the Czech president Vaclav Klaus signs his country’s ratification of the treaty (as looks imminent), it will become law across Europe and binding on all states. The only way out is to leave and the only way to “repatriate powers“  is to negotiate agreement from all 27 members countries, which will mean so much compromise as to be essentially impossible. In effect, the only way to renegotiate is to leave and try to rejoin.

I still believe that holding a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty itself is pointless. It would be an expensive way of guaging public opinion – I can predict with 90% certainly that around 65-70% would vote against the treaty and 30-35% for it. So what? There’s nothing you can do with that info except to figure that Britain is a broadly Euro-sceptic country, which we already know.

So DC’s promise has been overtaken by events and he knows it. His problem now is to reconcile his party between those who want a referendum and/or exit from Europe – and how to stop them voting for UKIPpers – and those who still see a future in a Europe of trading partners. It is unlikely that other European nations – particularly France, Germany and a Spain riddled with resentment over Gibraltar – will allow the UK to enjoy the benefits of economic community without the constraints of the social and political union.

So where does DC go? He promised a referendum but the one he promised is a dead duck. He has stated he “won’t let matters rest” but that could mean anything. The repatriation of powers is not going to find favour in Europe itself but he doesn’t want to advocate leaving the EU for fear of upsetting the One Nation Set, including Ken Clarke who is broadly seen by voters as moderate and electable.

Personally, I have always favoured a trading relationship with Europe without the political tie-ins. If this becomes impossible, I think preserving our political freedom is more important than trade and we should withdraw from the EU and manage our trade relationships accordingly. It’s not a one-way street; Europe also needs the UK – otherwise we become a very potent competitor.

My suggestion to DC was to let Europe take a back seat but he seems adamant on pushing it. Therefore I think we should have a referendum with four questions – yes or no to:

1) The Lisbon Treaty

2) Membership of the Euro

3) Inclusion in the Social Chapter

4) Membership of the EU itself

The referendum would cost the same amount of money – but will provide a government with information on the sort of Europe that its people want and allow it to go forward with negotiation on that basis.

Posted in David Cameron, Europe. Tags: , , , , , , . No Comments »

Distant relations

October 31, 2009 — admin
Michal Kaminski - a problematic past, but pragmatism must overcome principle

Michal Kaminski - a problematic past, but pragmatism must overcome principle

With Tony Blair having failed to get a job that doesn’t exist, Vaclav Klaus is going to have to do something seriously amazing to hold off on signing the Lisbon Treaty for another seven months. The Labour Party desperately wants it signed because it knows a Conservative Party promising a referendum on this issue will gain votes that it would not otherwise get – once the issue is dead it is a significant disadvantage to DC. If this happen, he needs to steady the ship and take stock rather than be rushed into knee-jerk European policy - while keeping on with the message that we should have had a referendum if Gordon Brown had kept his promises.

If I were him I wouldn’t be making hay over Europe. There is still a thorny issue of Conservative partners in the EP that is a tricky one to avoid. By asking for David Miliband to apologise over his comments at the party conference, DC is raising a tricky issue unecessarily and is hardly likely to succeed in his  request. Voters will turn a blind eye to Michal Kaminski for the moment to get rid of Gordon but sooner or later, the Grauniad, the Liberal Democrats and Mr Miliband will get this issue further into the mainstream.

The essence of this issue is the different ways the nations of the EU see the European Parliament. For France and Germany, the architects of the EU, the parliament is an important body that they see as having a consequential role in their domestic policy and the policies across the continent that they are trying to control influence. Other countries such as Italy and Greece ignore the EP and its deliberations completely, whereas eastern European nations look at it hopefully, doing as they are told in order to gain as much financial benefit as possible.

Only Britain frames the European Parliament around the federalism/sovereignty debate. So we position ourselves with those other European groups who on this issue and this issue alone align with our place in this arena. For Labour, it’s the socialist group, for the Lib Dems it’s the Liberal Group. For the Conservatives, though, the centre-right EPP grouping – while aligned on issues of economics and social policy – is not aligned on the sovereignty question because those governments don’t see the EU in that way.

Those groups that do focus on the sovereignty question in other countries tend to be small because it is a low priority in other parts of Europe. It so happens that some of their members have unfortunate pasts. I’m not delighted with this but if it’s a choice between falling into line with the federalists and gritting our teeth to stand up for what we believe in on the greatest political question of the age, I can accept it – just.

Update 1/11: Okay, so it’s only the Grauniad foraying around in the trash but this story gives an idea of the kind of trouble that could be in line for DC unless he lays off the European stuff a bit. Being criticised by other European leaders will go down well with some people but not with others. He needs to concentrate on the election winners – the NHS, schools, the economy. Europe at the moment is a mug’s game and the more he looks at it the more he will be pressurised into stating his position. It’s playing into Labour’s hands.

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Don’t let the grin win

October 27, 2009 — admin
At least the man on the left has experience of being president...

At least the man on the left has experience of being president...

There’s a great website with a petition to sign up to if you want to stop Tony Blair becoming President of Europe. It would be even nicer if there was an election on the subject, come to think of it – but that’s the EU for you. Even if we voted for that Dutch chap or the bloke from Luxembourg instead, we’d probably have to have a re-run until the “correct” president was elected. A bit like in Afghanistan.

Anyway, please feel free to make your way to Stop Blair! and do your bit to ensure that the grinning idiot doesn’t get to do to Europe what he did to Britain. And please bear in mind that if he gets the job, he’ll be pushing for PM to abandon the Good Ship Brown in favour of becoming his Foreign Minister. I can’t think of anything worse – nor a more suitable set of corrupt and lofty institutions for them to preside over.

Of course if you are really desperate to stop Blair, you could always sign the Lib Dem petition of Scottish MEP George Lyon. I hope it’s better than all their other ones.

Posted in Europe, Labour. Tags: , , , , , . No Comments »

Blair Wish Project

October 26, 2009 — admin
Putin in reverse - former PM wants to be your President

Putin in reverse - former PM wants to be your President

Things really are hotting up in Europe. Firstly, we’ve got the “will he, won’t he?” saga about the European constitution with the Czech president Vaclav Klaus – rapidly becoming a hero of Eurosceptics – trying to hold out on the Lisbon Treaty as long as possible. I can’t find it now but I read this morning in one of the papers that he was trying to get a ruling in a Czech court that the treaty had to go to a referendum in the Czech republic – this is probably the only tactic that would be able to hold up the process until May next year.

I’m not holding my breath that the legal system of any of the member states would give a judgement against the EU. I think it is likely that the treaty will have to be signed by the end of the year; certainly that is the line being spun by Klaus’s inner circle to the press. Such a line clearly relieves the political pressure on him. But at the same time, some signals from Conservative bigwigs suggest everything is not as it seems. We shall see.

David Miliband is not among the doubters, as he made his pitch for the EU Foreign Secretary post today. But the most worrying thing about this whole business is the idea of Tony Blair as the President of Europe. As far as I’m concerned, the whole concept of a European President is a totally obnoxious and febrile one for the very reason that someone like Blair was always going to end up holding it.

The centre-right have a majority in the European parliament, yet the European Commission is stuffed full of socialists and the only real contenders for President are left of centre as well. That’s the EU for you - made by socialists, for socialists regardless of what the voters of Europe think. We elect 650-odd troughers to go and sit in a bi-local theatre of buffoonery also known as the European Parliament while the people who make the decisions remain from the same political class and persuasion that dreamed up the silly European sophistry to start with.

The idea of Blair sitting on top of them all as a “reward” for his achievements is poetic. Remind me again about his achievements – the failure to reform welfare, the failure to reform the NHS, badly botched constitutional tinkering, opening our borders to immigration without provision of proper infrastructure, cash for honours, a PR disaster in Kosovo and two illegal wars in the Middle East. More importantly, he failed to persuade Britain to go into the Euro and by the end of his tenure – where politics was changed for the worse – event the British people had had enough of him.

Like PM, all you need is a few years on the lecture circuit and all is forgiven in British politics. Sometimes, like in the case of Sir John Major, who was badly let down by his greedy and complacent parliamentary party, that it a good thing. But Blair’s failures were all his own and the result of a hubris that badly let down large sections of this country.

For goodness’ sake, let’s not give him the opportunity to do the same to the whole of Europe.

Posted in Europe, Labour. Tags: , , , , , , . No Comments »
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