Economical with the truth

It’s a mixed day for the economic forecasts at the moment. Gordon Brown, for obvious reasons, is keen to claim credit for a few signs that the recession misery is easing. More likely, the dire straits of the first few months of 2009 are calming and the economy is being stimulated by production starting up again and the billions of extra pounds that the Bank of England has been forced to print.

Elsewhere, economists aren’t as optimistic as Gordon. Ann Pettifor thinks the worst is yet to come and the FT reports that even after a recovery is in full swing, there will be parts of the economy that have been permanently damaged and that will not return to pre-recession levels.

On a political level, Gordon’s front-page splash in the FT (complete with exclusive picture of Blairite hand gestures) is designed to keep City relations on an admittedly delicate even keel by trying to convince bankers that controlling their bonuses is vital to re-establishing the City’s reputation abroad.

He also knows that the FT is the newspaper that journalists read and that a front page there will get picked up everywhere else (notably the BBC, although they are obviously annoyed the story was fed to the FT as they only run it in the business news) for more populist purposes.

The point is this – that Gordon and his gang are going to try and claim that far from wrecking the UK’s once vibrant financial services and manufacturing economy with ruinous debts, strangling regulation and non-existent oversight, the government has actually saved it from destruction and navigated the financial storm. Really?

DC writes today in the Times about the Lockerbie decision and that’s fair enough because clearly some pretty underhand stuff has gone on there. But he needs to be ready to maintain pressure on Gordon over his economy-wrecking and head off Labour attempts to create a competence myth around the embryonic recovery.

Labour governments always end up out of office with the country bankrupt and 2010 will be no exception. DC needs to bring his communications skills to bear on this fact if Labour are not to slip out of the electoral noose.

The Auld Alliance

It’s been a case of France and Scotland again this weekend, with the news that Mark France, the anti-Julie Kirkbride protester has been sacked by the Job Centre – no irony there, then. They rightly saw his vitriolic pursual of Ms Kirkbride (even though the blog is rubbish) as political activity, which as a public servant he shouldn’t be engaged in.

We’ll just wait for the employment tribunal now then – once again, no irony. But that’s the DWP for you.

Elsewhere, Scottish supremo Alex Salmond is sure that the early release of Abdelbasset Ali Al-Megrahi was the correct one. Wrong. The Americans are deeply unimpressed and as the major backers of any independence movement going, particularly in the UK (IRA funding, anyone?), the SNP has shot it’s own ultimate aim very sorely in the foot.

Nice going for only two years in government!

Lockerbie dilemma

One Thursday morning in the Christmas school holidays of 1988, I remember going into my parents bedroom and they told me that a plane had crashed in Scotland and a lot of people had been killed. On the news, the image of the cockpit section of the Boeing 747 Clipper Maid of the Seas was being broadcast everywhere along with rough sketches of what had occurred.

Later that week, my Dad discovered that a business associate of his, Richard Cawley, had been aboard Pan-Am flight 103 and while I was too young at the time for this information to register it demonstrates that the number of those affected by the horrible events of that day went beyond even the 270 innocent people on board and on the ground and their families, who have suffered so much.

Years later, two Libyans stood trial for their part in bringing down the plane and one, Abdelbaset al Megrahi was found guilty. Now it looks as if he will be freed on compassionate grounds in a decision sure to cool further the Anglo-American relationship – one being made by an SNP politician in Edinburgh.

The fact that the conviction itself is patently unsafe is not relevant. My own opinion has long been that Pan-Am Flight 103 was not brought down by a bomb at all and that in an incident similar to United Airlines Flight 811 and China Airlines Flight 611, the front starboard cargo door sprung open in flight, causing an explosive decompression and disintegration. Al Megrahi may have been involved in purchasing explosives, which may have detonated during the decompression, but I have never believed this was the initial event that caused the crash.

Aside from the legal arguments, the point is this – that the currency of the UK’s “special relationship” with America now rests with nationalist politicians in Edinburgh – an unwelcome side-effect of a poorly thought-out devolution.