Security threat

The Home Secretary has revealed that the level of terror threat to the public has been officially increased to “severe” by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre. This comes a few days after flights to and from Yemen were suspended. Does anyone else see a pattern emerging here?

I have said before that I anticipate more and more security alerts as we run up to an election as Gordon Brown appeals to us to believe that he is the only person able to look after us.

But let’s look at how likely this really is. Today, the threat level gets raised to “severe”, meaning an attack is “highly likely”. Yet Alan Johnson accompanies this move by stressing “there was no intelligence to suggest a terrorist attack was imminent“. Eh? Of course we wouldn’t expect him to release details of operations being picked up by GCHQ or MI6 but it’s still an odd thing to say given that the reason that the threat level is raised in the first place.

In addition, the threat level has been set at “severe” or higher since August 2006. In that time, we have had one very amateurish attack on Glasgow Airport where the perpitrators were the only victims (and they were only 50% successful in that given that they had both intended to die and only one did). Another very unsophisticated attack in London was foiled - both were also probably connected to Gordon Brown becoming PM that week and so might not have happened but for that event.

Nothing else has materialised that even comes close to the level of violence seen on the mainland at the height of The Troubles. During that time, there was no terror threat indicator made public via the BBC and Prime Ministers made speeches not outlining in the gravest terms actions that were being taken against a perceived threat but of defiance in the face of enemy action and sympathy with those killed.

In my view, the decision to make public the UK terror threat level is little but a publicity device that keeps terror in the news and in people’s minds when actually the security services would be much better left to their own devices to fight the issue out of the limelight. What possible use can it serve to tell people that they are in danger when you absolutely can’t tell them why? During the Second World War, the very opposite approach was used by the government and people were told that they should simply keep calm and carry on.

And why were they not given more information? Because the government believed, rightly, that the result would be a scared and frightened population. Which can be the only reason therefore that this government has chosen the approach it has - and we ought to ask ourselves why.

Welsh opportunity

St George and the dragon could be friends...

St George and the dragon could be friends...

As I’m going to marry a Welsh girl next summer, I’ve got a vested interest in the Principality so it’s interesting to me to consider how Wales and England will relate to each other during the next two Parliaments.

To my mind, in both Scotland and Northern Ireland, the principle argument of the United Kingdom’s integrity has been lost – Ulster will return to Ireland and Scotland will become an independent state; it is just a question of when, and how.

In Wales though – and despite the equally bloody history of Anglo-Welsh relations – there is a far milder desire for that kind of thing and despite Plaid Cymru’s successes as a protest vote, people in Wales generally want to think about how to secure better government within the UK.

Today, we have a Welsh opinion poll that is promising news for DC, following a good showing the European elections, where the Conservatives always do well. How he and his government approach the question of engaging with the Welsh people will be an important question if he becomes the next PM. There are Welsh links in the party – from Ffion Hague to Cheryl Gillian, widely regarded as a rising star - and there is a real opportunity to cement some of the Union’s crumbling brickwork.

Labour’s policy in Wales has been the same for 100 years. They tap into the hopelessness and victimhood of post-industrial decline and keep people where they are using the Welfare State. In large tracts of Wales, this has worked well for them and some of the safest Labour seats are in south Welsh ex-mining constituencies.

Parts of Wales can be every bit as rough and tough as the grittiest areas of England. But a renovated Cardiff and new impetus from devolution has reinforced the natural optimism of the Welsh people, particularly in the south, which is why I think more of them are prepared to give DC a chance.

The Welsh aren’t natural Tory voters outside the border regions. If they can’t vote Labour, they’ll go to PC – hell, they’ll even vote for Lembit Opik ahead of the Conservative. So this poll reveals a decisive, if fragile, shift. It’s an opportunity for the Conservatives to leave a legacy of good in parts of the UK that we haven’t previously reached.

So many other things need fixing and the Conservatives need to keep electoral support in England high to stay in office. But this is one Welsh opportunity that I sincerely hope we will seize upon. We need to show to a part of the UK previously neglected by us that we are serious about the future of every single person on our green and pleasant island.

Update 29/10: A breakdown of the figures shows more starkly the pick-up in Conservative support in Wales. Congratulations to the Tory Welsh team, which seems to be getting its message across. Now let’s not waste that progress through non-delivery.

Two reasons for Labour shame

Two things came out of the Labour conference that real made me angry. I can put up with Labour ministers banging on about how Gordon Brown saved the world and how the Tories are planning to throw pensioners into the sea etc etc but the sight of ex-terrorists being allowed to return to the scene of one of their most infamous atrocities on an official ticket, to be able to mingle with Cabinet ministers and turn up to parties sponsored by the Grauniad really makes me doubt the character of the people responsible. We all know who I’m talking about; his name doesn’t get mentioned on this blog.

What the IRA did to the Grand last time they visited

What the IRA did to the Grand last time they visited

I don’t need to go into the details of the Brighton bomb, which happened 25 years ago next month. Suffice it to say that I refuse to believe that it never occurred to the Labour Party what an inappropriate situation this was. It’s just the small, petty, spiteful and vindictive actions of a party that has lost its self-respect. No doubt next year they’ll be heading down to Eastbourne to hold the Labour conference outside the former home of Ian Gow. I don’t agree with Norman Tebbit about much but I certainly understand why he is not happy. Strangely, the BBC reports this only in its Northern Ireland coverage rather than the main conference section.

The second thing that made me mad was Gordon Brown‘s proposal for 16 and 17-year old single mothers to be housed together in shared accommodation rather than single flats. I can imagine the utter furore if a Conservative government had come forward with similar proposals. This is the politics of victimhood – of Labour saying to people “You’ll never amount to much but if you stick with us, we’ll protect you from the Conservatives who want to cut you loose in society.” Wrong.

The way to tackle teenage pregnancy is break the cycle of poverty and lack of opportunity that teaches young girls the only way to get on in life is to have babies because with those come houses and income through benefits. Young people need teachers who can instill self-worth in them, social workers who have the power to tackle parents who don’t give a damn and clear and distinct paths of opportunity to make their lives better before they bring babies into the world to share them.

It would also help if teachers didn’t hand out contraceptives to girls barely old enough to write their own names and if our culture wasn’t so wholly dominated by images of sex and peer pressure to engage in it. There are other enjoyable pursuits in life for young people – but if sex is all they know, it’s inevitable that it will become a preoccupation. It is up to government to enable the alternatives. It makes me mad that Labour has no intention to do this while telling everyone it cares about young mothers. It is not interested in single mothers – only their votes – and bunging them all together in block accommodation is a ghastly piece of ignorant and exploitative legislation that has no place whatsoever in Parliament.

I hope DC refers to this in Manchester. The Conservatives should be able to do a lot better.