Reality a-tax

The Daily Mail is leading the charge for the right wing of the Conservative Party and David Davis suggesting that people with second homes, shares, jewellery and other assets should not face any increase in Capital Gains Tax from 18% to 40% in order to help people on lower incomes (below £10,000) stay out of income tax altogether. There is plenty of talk of “betrayal” and “revolt” among the 1922 hopefuls and a general feeling that a Conservative government doesn’t do this sort of thing.

Firstly, let’s remember that the reason we are in government at all is because we’ve been able to come to an agreement with the Lib Dems. Sure, a Conservative government with a outright majority would probably have steered clear of CGT altogether but we were 18 seats short of where we wanted to be and the result is compromise rather than full implementation of Conservative principles. It’s a little uncomfortable in places but the PM has said that stable government was necessary in this time of national strife and compromise is part of that.

Furthermore, David Davis says that he wants to protect the ”hard-working, responsible, self-reliant middle and working classes”. I’m not sure how many “ordinary” people he feels deal in more than £10,000 of capital gains each year but I suspect the answer is “not many”. You also won’t find in any of the major papers the fact that the current 18% rate was only set by Labour in 1998 and previously had been much higher under the Conservative government during the 80s and 90s.

The fact is that people who have these kinds of assets to make money on need to pay their fair share in helping reduce the deficit – that may be fair to those whose trading helped bring the problems about and unfair on prudent savers. That’s unfortunate, it’s not entirely comfortable and it’s certainly not Conservative; but it’s necessary and hopefully temporary.

What is important is that those who are being helped by this measure by being freed of tax burdens and encouraged to work at the lower end of the pay scale are given a very firm steer in that direction. There is no justice in asking some people to pay for a £10,000 income tax threshold if those benefitting from it are then not working or contributing to society. Just as we need the wealthiest to help the country out of trouble, so we need the bottom-up economy to get working too.

Having taken a centrist view of the CGT issue then, I’m happy to take a more centre-right view on Iain Duncan Smith’s promise to mend our benefits system, which is a national joke. Of course I believe that the poorest in society should have the help they need. But I also firmly believe that thousands and thousands of people routinely abuse our over-complex and under-thought benefits system for their own gain – at the expense of the entire nation and other taxpayers.

So I hope that left-leaning thinkers will see a connection here – between controlling the right-leaning tax tendencies of the Conservative Party but also changing the liberal attitudes to the Welfare State that have cost Britain money and not a little self-respect during the past 20 years.

Welsh opportunity

St George and the dragon could be friends...

St George and the dragon could be friends...

As I’m going to marry a Welsh girl next summer, I’ve got a vested interest in the Principality so it’s interesting to me to consider how Wales and England will relate to each other during the next two Parliaments.

To my mind, in both Scotland and Northern Ireland, the principle argument of the United Kingdom’s integrity has been lost – Ulster will return to Ireland and Scotland will become an independent state; it is just a question of when, and how.

In Wales though – and despite the equally bloody history of Anglo-Welsh relations – there is a far milder desire for that kind of thing and despite Plaid Cymru’s successes as a protest vote, people in Wales generally want to think about how to secure better government within the UK.

Today, we have a Welsh opinion poll that is promising news for DC, following a good showing the European elections, where the Conservatives always do well. How he and his government approach the question of engaging with the Welsh people will be an important question if he becomes the next PM. There are Welsh links in the party – from Ffion Hague to Cheryl Gillian, widely regarded as a rising star - and there is a real opportunity to cement some of the Union’s crumbling brickwork.

Labour’s policy in Wales has been the same for 100 years. They tap into the hopelessness and victimhood of post-industrial decline and keep people where they are using the Welfare State. In large tracts of Wales, this has worked well for them and some of the safest Labour seats are in south Welsh ex-mining constituencies.

Parts of Wales can be every bit as rough and tough as the grittiest areas of England. But a renovated Cardiff and new impetus from devolution has reinforced the natural optimism of the Welsh people, particularly in the south, which is why I think more of them are prepared to give DC a chance.

The Welsh aren’t natural Tory voters outside the border regions. If they can’t vote Labour, they’ll go to PC – hell, they’ll even vote for Lembit Opik ahead of the Conservative. So this poll reveals a decisive, if fragile, shift. It’s an opportunity for the Conservatives to leave a legacy of good in parts of the UK that we haven’t previously reached.

So many other things need fixing and the Conservatives need to keep electoral support in England high to stay in office. But this is one Welsh opportunity that I sincerely hope we will seize upon. We need to show to a part of the UK previously neglected by us that we are serious about the future of every single person on our green and pleasant island.

Update 29/10: A breakdown of the figures shows more starkly the pick-up in Conservative support in Wales. Congratulations to the Tory Welsh team, which seems to be getting its message across. Now let’s not waste that progress through non-delivery.