Blair ditches project

November 19, 2009 — admin
Herman's not a German but he's supported by them

Herman's not a German but he's supported by them

It’s okay, panic over – Tony Blair will not become President of Europe and we can all sleep a little easier. I don’t imagine for a second that the “winning candidate” – and I use the term advisedly given that I don’t remember receiving a polling card for this particular “election” – is going to do a vastly better job. Herman van Rompuy seems like a unpleasantly devout federalist who talks about standardised taxation and exectly the sorts of things that will have people running to UKIP.

It reinforces my belief that the UK and the EU are increasingly incompatible in terms of their future direction. What pro-EU Conservatives and Liberal Democrats don’t seem to get is that the European ideal is a Franco-Germanic concept designed to ensure those nations’ national interests remain predominant. I don’t blame them for that – for 200 years Britain pursued often brutal foreign policy to ensure our national interests were enforced – but we are surfing over a waterfall if we don’t recognise where the EU path is leading us.

The most scary thing for me is not the single currency, tax regime, foreign policy etc – it is the idea of Mr Rompuy being “named” as the EU leader and “chosen” by other leaders. This is exactly the kind of thing that the Politburo used to announce through Pravda and identical to the way that the Chinese president is “elected”. For me, the worrying thing about the EU is that it is sucking up the democratic mandate further and further from the people it seeks to govern. I can’t accept that this makes Europe safer, more harmonious or prosperous.

Tony Blair as EU President would have been a dreadful thing precisely because he holds the sort of centralising, anti-democratic tendencies that would re-inforce this worrying trend. Voting by region every five years is not democracy – no-one should sit in the European Parliament unless they have been directly elected by voters and I’m still not sure why if the European Commission is necessary it cannot be chosen out of the parliament in the same way as the cabinet in Westminster.

A separate EU presidential election ought to occur if we are to have an EU president. But since the chairman or woman of the EC ought to wield sufficient power, I cannot accept that a president is necessary in addition.

There is so much waste, so much interference and so much anti-democratic instinct in Brussels that DC should ignore it altogether for six years. Then, two years into his second term, he should hold a full EU membership referendum – once Britain has built up her economic and social strength once again – to settle this question once and for all. A strong Britain needs Europe and vice-versa – but my view is that leaving the EU would make us focus on what we as a nation want to be in 2050 and beyond.

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Referendum fever

November 3, 2009 — admin

Back in 2007, a Conservative leadership that badly needed to get back the support of The Sun newspaper made a “cast-iron” guarantee about holding a referendum on whatever treaty resulted from the negotiations at Lisbon.

Once the Czech president Vaclav Klaus signs his country’s ratification of the treaty (as looks imminent), it will become law across Europe and binding on all states. The only way out is to leave and the only way to “repatriate powers“  is to negotiate agreement from all 27 members countries, which will mean so much compromise as to be essentially impossible. In effect, the only way to renegotiate is to leave and try to rejoin.

I still believe that holding a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty itself is pointless. It would be an expensive way of guaging public opinion – I can predict with 90% certainly that around 65-70% would vote against the treaty and 30-35% for it. So what? There’s nothing you can do with that info except to figure that Britain is a broadly Euro-sceptic country, which we already know.

So DC’s promise has been overtaken by events and he knows it. His problem now is to reconcile his party between those who want a referendum and/or exit from Europe – and how to stop them voting for UKIPpers – and those who still see a future in a Europe of trading partners. It is unlikely that other European nations – particularly France, Germany and a Spain riddled with resentment over Gibraltar – will allow the UK to enjoy the benefits of economic community without the constraints of the social and political union.

So where does DC go? He promised a referendum but the one he promised is a dead duck. He has stated he “won’t let matters rest” but that could mean anything. The repatriation of powers is not going to find favour in Europe itself but he doesn’t want to advocate leaving the EU for fear of upsetting the One Nation Set, including Ken Clarke who is broadly seen by voters as moderate and electable.

Personally, I have always favoured a trading relationship with Europe without the political tie-ins. If this becomes impossible, I think preserving our political freedom is more important than trade and we should withdraw from the EU and manage our trade relationships accordingly. It’s not a one-way street; Europe also needs the UK – otherwise we become a very potent competitor.

My suggestion to DC was to let Europe take a back seat but he seems adamant on pushing it. Therefore I think we should have a referendum with four questions – yes or no to:

1) The Lisbon Treaty

2) Membership of the Euro

3) Inclusion in the Social Chapter

4) Membership of the EU itself

The referendum would cost the same amount of money – but will provide a government with information on the sort of Europe that its people want and allow it to go forward with negotiation on that basis.

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Distant relations

October 31, 2009 — admin
Michal Kaminski - a problematic past, but pragmatism must overcome principle

Michal Kaminski - a problematic past, but pragmatism must overcome principle

With Tony Blair having failed to get a job that doesn’t exist, Vaclav Klaus is going to have to do something seriously amazing to hold off on signing the Lisbon Treaty for another seven months. The Labour Party desperately wants it signed because it knows a Conservative Party promising a referendum on this issue will gain votes that it would not otherwise get – once the issue is dead it is a significant disadvantage to DC. If this happen, he needs to steady the ship and take stock rather than be rushed into knee-jerk European policy - while keeping on with the message that we should have had a referendum if Gordon Brown had kept his promises.

If I were him I wouldn’t be making hay over Europe. There is still a thorny issue of Conservative partners in the EP that is a tricky one to avoid. By asking for David Miliband to apologise over his comments at the party conference, DC is raising a tricky issue unecessarily and is hardly likely to succeed in his  request. Voters will turn a blind eye to Michal Kaminski for the moment to get rid of Gordon but sooner or later, the Grauniad, the Liberal Democrats and Mr Miliband will get this issue further into the mainstream.

The essence of this issue is the different ways the nations of the EU see the European Parliament. For France and Germany, the architects of the EU, the parliament is an important body that they see as having a consequential role in their domestic policy and the policies across the continent that they are trying to control influence. Other countries such as Italy and Greece ignore the EP and its deliberations completely, whereas eastern European nations look at it hopefully, doing as they are told in order to gain as much financial benefit as possible.

Only Britain frames the European Parliament around the federalism/sovereignty debate. So we position ourselves with those other European groups who on this issue and this issue alone align with our place in this arena. For Labour, it’s the socialist group, for the Lib Dems it’s the Liberal Group. For the Conservatives, though, the centre-right EPP grouping – while aligned on issues of economics and social policy – is not aligned on the sovereignty question because those governments don’t see the EU in that way.

Those groups that do focus on the sovereignty question in other countries tend to be small because it is a low priority in other parts of Europe. It so happens that some of their members have unfortunate pasts. I’m not delighted with this but if it’s a choice between falling into line with the federalists and gritting our teeth to stand up for what we believe in on the greatest political question of the age, I can accept it – just.

Update 1/11: Okay, so it’s only the Grauniad foraying around in the trash but this story gives an idea of the kind of trouble that could be in line for DC unless he lays off the European stuff a bit. Being criticised by other European leaders will go down well with some people but not with others. He needs to concentrate on the election winners – the NHS, schools, the economy. Europe at the moment is a mug’s game and the more he looks at it the more he will be pressurised into stating his position. It’s playing into Labour’s hands.

Posted in Conservatives, Europe. Tags: , , , , , , , , . No Comments »
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